Sunday, August 5, 2012

Duval County - Fl; A Decisive County For Obama to Win in Florida

Jacksonville - Fl
Tampa, Fl -- Is quite difficult to think about Duval County about one of the places that there is an enthusiasm for the Democratic party because historically this place has been Republican oriented albeit not necessarily strict as Hillsborough but yet Duval is extremely unpredictable with the voters trends because even if the orientation goes on the GOP doesn't mean they Grand Old Party will have a secure victory on Florida is they win voters on County Area.

There is a lot of contradiction in the area, if you drive to any part of the county you will find every stereotype imaginable, much as a starburst, from redneck Democrats, to amazing views and bridges as Chicago, inner city minnorities who will complain about crime, hipster Republicans drinking coffee at Starbucks and whatever you can imagine - yet it is one of the most misunderstood and under studied counties in Florida regarding political trends as well city management -. If we look the last two Republican mayors raised taxes and fees significantly, while the new Democratic mayor Alvin Brown has Tea Party activist hailing his fiscal conservationism, historically this county that Republican candidates win by 15% points can be nailed by a Democratic candidate much as the south part of the State.

On 2004, George W. defeated Kerry in Duval by a 62.000 votes margin, while previous candidate John McCain who is a former resident of Jacksonville barely went through the 10.000 votes, but do Obama has what it needs to conquer a predominantly red county?. Who knows?. From one side when he won on 2008 there was an enthusiasm because he was the first African American who conquered the hearts of people and motivated them to go out and vote, yet the other side of the problem rallies on the conformism of the people to not think beyond their bubble and complain for minimal details not even thinking that all the problems we have now are from the previous administration which was a Republican cabinet that lasted for almost a decade.

The problem is not in Duval, but rather how close he can keep it because if the campaign can't keep closer than seven or eight percentage points from the Republican campaign it will become hard to make up for those votes around the State. One of the elemental keys are the votes of the African-Americans because it compose a body of 530.000 voters who develop a decisive point in the electoral race as well a key in the victory of Obama.    

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