Sunday, September 16, 2012

A Vote in Blank, Abstention Two Different POVS Beyond Democrats and Republicans

Tampa, Fl -- November 6th is not far away and as what we had so far in the year there has been numerous controversies regarding the upcoming elections due in part of the Super PAC work in order to achieve the biggest number of votes and word mouth to mouth which hasn't prove to be the best either because ignorance keeps appearing at every doorstep regarding the politics of the two major parties as well the two candidates for the upcoming election of 2012. Even so, you probably would be wearing an I voted sticker that say you are a proud participant of a millennial tradition started by the Greeks, one system that in many cases it is just imperfect.

On the forthcoming day that is less than 3 months away, Americans will be resting from quintessential labors and will be face to face, standing in line with millions of other people waiting to pull the levers, to touch the screen or whatever their district do to vote in order to cast their vote but also there is another side of the bipartisan spectrum and probably start a fight in the voting places by saying - I don't vote - ..

Voting is widely thought to be one of the most important things a person can do; but, the reasons people give for why they vote are usually imperfect, unconvincing and sometimes even problematic regard the ignorance the voters themselves have regarding the national problematic's. Much of the time the case for voting relies on factual errors, lack of civic comprehension and over-inflated perceptions.

Every vote counts - Being honest your vote won't certainly your vote won't determine the outcome of any public election. What I am saying is not on the level of conspiracy theories that people will fix the ballots every time there is an election, except the worst cases scenarios of laundry of votes had happen a few times in the past but I am talking about simple mathematics because in all American history, a single vote has never determined the outcome of a presidential election. A 2001 National Bureau of Economic Research by economist Charles Hunter looked at 53.613 contested congressional and state legislative races dating back to 1898 of the 40.000 state legislative election they examined, encompassing 1 billion votes cast, only seven were decided by a single vote and two were tied.

A 1910 Buffalo contest was the lone single vote victory in a century's worth of congressional race. In 4:10 close campaigns flagged in the paper, there was subsequent recounts unearthed margins larger than the official record that was suggested at the beginning. (Reason, 2012, September 15th Edition). The numbers turn more ridiculous from that point, as in 2012 article of the Economic Inquiry, Columbia  University professor Andrew Gelman and statistician Nate Silver and economist Aaron Edlin used poll results from the 2008 election to calculate that the chance of a randomly selected vote determining the outcome of a presidential election is about 1:60.000.000

Voting for the rich and stealing to the poor - Let's think of a hipotetical scenario which is not odd it is the dialogue between a Democrat and a Republican, let say if you ask someone why rich people will vote Republican, then there is a chance the person will say because the GOP policies regarding business and lower the taxes on the 1%; but that's a a question with a double meaning, a tricky one because rich people are really not likely to vote Republican, second sociological studies show that people do not really vote regarding their material interests.

The book Decision and Democracy: The Pure Theory of Electoral Preference of Loren Lomasky and  Geoffrey Brennan, offer an alternative theory on the decisions of the voters which they offer the utility of the vote as a function of probability that the vote will be decisive, delivering gains if the preferred candidate wins.  The probability of casting the decisive vote decrease as the voting pool gets larger so in a presidential election where the number of voters is around 120 million and one candidate is usually a point or two ahead on election day, that's it, your hopes are screwed.